EU accession fast-track uncertainty

Brussels is debating “membership-lite/reverse enlargement” to bring Ukraine closer by 2027–2028, but unanimity (notably Hungary) and strict acquis alignment remain hurdles. The pathway implies rapid regulatory change across customs, competition, SPS, and rule-of-law safeguards—material for compliance planning.

Currency resilience and cost pressures

The baht is supported by a current account surplus (~3.1% of GDP) and reserves above US$200bn, but appreciation squeezes exporter margins. Rising labor costs (higher social security contributions) and PM2.5 disruptions add operating risk; hedging and contingency HR planning matter.

Volatile US rate-cut expectations

Markets are highly sensitive to clustered US labor, retail, and CPI releases, with shifting expectations for 2026 Fed cuts. Exchange-rate and financing-cost volatility impacts hedging, M&A timing, inventory financing, and emerging-market capital flows tied to US dollar liquidity.

Energy security and gas reservation

Federal plans to introduce an east-coast gas reservation from 2027—requiring LNG exporters to reserve 15–25% for domestic supply—could alter contract structures, price dynamics and feedstock certainty for manufacturers and data centres. Producers warn of arbitrage and margin impacts in winter peaks.

Federal shutdown and fiscal brinkmanship

Recurring U.S. fiscal standoffs are disrupting federal services and increasing macro uncertainty. A partial government shutdown began after Congress missed funding deadlines, with estimates of up to $11B GDP loss if prolonged. Impacts include delayed permits, customs/agency backlogs, contractor payment risks, and market volatility.

US/EU trade rules tightening

Thailand faces heightened external trade-policy risk: US tariff uncertainty and monitoring of transshipment, while EU market access increasingly hinges on CBAM, waste-shipment rules and standards. Firms must strengthen origin compliance, traceability, documentation and supplier due diligence to protect exports.

Rising defence spending and procurement

Germany is accelerating rearmament with major outlays (e.g., €536m initial loitering‑munitions order within a €4.3bn framework; broader funding exceeding €100bn). This boosts defence-tech opportunities but heightens export-control, security and supply‑capacity constraints.

Ciclo de juros e inflação

Com Selic em 15% e inflação em 12 meses perto de 4,44% (abaixo do teto de 4,5%), o mercado precifica início de cortes em março, possivelmente 50 bps. Isso afeta custo de capital, demanda doméstica, hedge cambial e valuations.

Expansionary fiscal agenda, debt risks

The government’s post-election stimulus and proposed two-year suspension of the 8% food consumption tax heighten concerns over Japan’s already high debt and rising interest costs, potentially lifting JGB yields, tightening credit conditions, and complicating foreign investors’ return and valuation models.

Transición energética con cuellos

La expansión renovable enfrenta saturación de red y reglas aún en definición sobre despacho, pagos de capacidad e interconexión, clave para baterías y nuevos proyectos. Permisos “fast‑track” avanzan (p.ej., solares de 75‑130MW), pero curtailment y retrasos pueden afectar PPAs y costos.

Labor regulation and strike liability

The “Yellow Envelope” law taking effect March 10 broadens “employer” to include subcontractors and limits damages claims against strikers. Foreign chambers warn reduced predictability and higher labor-dispute exposure, especially for manufacturers and logistics operators using layered contracting models.

Central bank pivot and rate path

The Bank of Thailand is shifting from rate-only signalling toward broader measures targeting productivity and inequality, while maintaining accommodative policy. Analysts expect a possible cut toward 1.00% in early 2026. Lower rates help borrowers but may not revive investment without reforms.

Anti-corruption tightening and governance

A new Party resolution on anti-corruption and “wastefulness” is set to intensify prevention, post-audit controls, and enforcement in high-risk sectors. This can reduce informal costs over time, yet heightens near-term compliance risk, procurement scrutiny, and potential project delays during investigations.

Ужесточение контроля судоходства

Запад переходит к физическому пресечению обхода: перехваты и досмотры танкеров, обсуждения ареста судов, давление на «безфлаговые» и переоформление танкеров под российский флаг. Фрахт, страхование и портовые сервисы дорожают, повышая сбои отгрузок.

Local content and procurement localisation

PIF’s local-content drive exceeds ~US$157bn, with contractor participation reported at ~67% in 2025 and expanding pipelines of platform-listed opportunities. International suppliers face higher localisation, JV, and in-Kingdom value-add requirements (e.g., IKTVA-style terms) to win contracts.

Data-centre boom strains power

Thailand is positioning as a regional data-centre hub: BOI approved seven projects worth over THB96bn, with 36 projects totaling THB728bn in 2025. Egat is investing THB31bn to expand EEC transmission capacity, making electricity access a key site-selection constraint.

Economic-security industrial policy expansion

Tokyo is using subsidies and “economic security” framing to steer strategic sectors (chips, AI, defense-linked tech). This can crowd-in foreign investment and partnerships, but increases compliance complexity around sensitive technologies and state-aid conditions.

Water scarcity and failing utilities

Water system deterioration is a growing operational hazard, especially in Gauteng and major metros. National repair backlog is estimated near R400bn versus ~R26bn budgeted for 2025/26; outages affecting millions raise business-continuity costs and heighten ESG and social risk.

Governance and anti-corruption tightening

Ahead of IMF review, Pakistan’s governance plan targets high-risk agencies and strengthens AML/CFT, procurement rules and asset-declaration transparency. For multinationals this can improve fair competition over time, but near-term brings more scrutiny on payments, beneficial ownership, and higher documentation burdens in tenders.

Taiwan tensions and operational contingency

Taiwan remains a core flashpoint in U.S.–China relations, elevating tail risks for shipping, semiconductors and insurance. Recent leader-level discussions paired trade asks with warnings on arms sales. Companies should stress‑test logistics, inventory buffers, and contractual force‑majeure exposure for escalation scenarios.

US–Taiwan reciprocal trade pact

New US–Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade caps US tariffs at 15% and cuts average tariff burden to about 12.33% via 2,072 exemptions, while Taiwan removes/reduces 99% barriers. Ratification risk and standards alignment affect market access planning.

Labor market tightening and reforms

Unemployment rose to 7.9% (Q4 2025) with youth unemployment at 21.5%. Negotiations to curb ‘ruptures conventionnelles’ target ≥€400 million savings, potentially reducing benefit durations. For employers, this may change separation costs, hiring flexibility, and HR risk management.

Manufacturing incentives and localization

India continues industrial policy via PLI-style incentives and strategic missions spanning electronics, textiles, chemicals, and MSMEs. International manufacturers should evaluate local value-add requirements, supplier development, and potential WTO challenges, especially in autos and clean tech.

Won volatility and FX backstops

Authorities issued $3bn in FX stabilization bonds as reserves fell to about $425.9bn and equity outflows pressured KRW. Elevated USD/KRW volatility affects import costs, hedging budgets, and repatriation strategies, especially for commodity buyers and dollar-funded projects.

AB ve üçüncü ülke ticaret önlemleri

AB’nin çelikte kota ve korumacı önlemleri sıkılaşıyor; 1 Haziran’da ürün bazında %50’ye varan kotaların ihracatta yaklaşık 3 milyar $ kayıp yaratabileceği öngörülüyor. İhracatçılar yakın pazarlara yöneliyor. Ticaret sapması riski, sözleşme ve pazar stratejilerini yeniden şekillendiriyor.

LNG export expansion and permitting

The administration is accelerating LNG export approvals and permitting, supporting long-term contracts with Europe and Asia and stimulating upstream investment. Cheaper, abundant U.S. gas can lower energy-input costs for U.S. manufacturing while tightening global gas markets and shipping capacity.

Election outcome and policy clarity

The February 2026 election and constitutional-rewrite mandate shape near-term policy continuity, regulatory predictability, and reform pace. Markets rallied on reduced instability risk, but coalition bargaining can delay budgets, incentives, and infrastructure decisions crucial for foreign investors and contractors.

Investment security screening expands

CFIUS scrutiny and emerging outbound-investment controls increase deal uncertainty in sensitive sectors like semiconductors, AI and advanced manufacturing. Cross-border M&A may require longer timelines, mitigation agreements, or abandonment; investors need earlier national-security due diligence and structural protections.

Deflation and overcapacity pressures

China’s demand remains soft: January CPI +0.2% y/y and PPI −1.4% y/y, extending multi‑year factory deflation. Firms should expect aggressive price competition, export push to clear capacity, margin compression for suppliers, and higher countervailing‑duty risk abroad.

Post‑Brexit border digitisation setbacks

The government has halted/delayed the Single Trade Window after roughly £110m spent, keeping duplicative customs processes in place. With import declarations estimated to cost up to £4bn annually, firms face higher compliance costs, slower clearance, and planning uncertainty.

Sanctions spillovers and compliance

Tightening EU and allied Russia sanctions raise compliance obligations for firms trading regionally, especially in maritime services, finance, and dual-use goods. Enforcement is increasingly focused on circumvention routes through third countries, raising KYC, end-use, and counterpart diligence costs.

Wasserstoff-Importe und Infrastrukturaufbau

Deutschlands Wasserstoffstrategie und der Aufbau eines „Core Grid“ (geplant 9.040 km, 2025–2032; Invest ~€18,9 Mrd., teils Umwidmung von Gasleitungen) beeinflussen Energie- und Chemie-Cluster. Chancen entstehen für Infrastruktur, Ammoniak/LOHC und Offtake-Verträge; Verzögerungs- und Kostenrisiken bleiben.

Rising antitrust pressure on tech

U.S. antitrust enforcement is intensifying across major digital and platform markets, affecting dealmaking and operating models. DOJ is appealing remedies in the Google search monopoly case; FTC expanded an enterprise software/cloud probe into Microsoft bundling and interoperability; DOJ also widened scrutiny around Netflix conduct.

FDI ivmesi ve yatırım teşvikleri

2025’te DYY %12,2 artarak 13,1 milyar $ oldu; en büyük pay toptan-perakende %32, imalat %31, bilgi-iletişim %14. HIT-30 ve teşvik güncellemeleri, 5G yetkilendirmeleri ve sanayi alanı ilanları yatırım çekiyor; ancak finansman maliyeti ve politika algısı seçiciliği artırıyor.

Crackdown on grey capital

Industry leaders are urging tougher action against scams, money laundering and “grey capital,” warning reputational and compliance risks if Thailand is seen as a laundering hub. Expect tighter KYC/AML enforcement, more scrutiny of cross-border payments, and operational impacts for fintech and trade.

Foreign investment scrutiny and CFIUS

Elevated national-security screening of foreign acquisitions and sensitive real-estate/technology deals increases transaction timelines and remedies risk. Cross-border investors should expect greater diligence, mitigation agreements, and sectoral red lines in semiconductors, data, defense-adjacent manufacturing, and critical infrastructure.