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Mission Grey Daily Brief - August 11, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The global situation remains dynamic, with escalating cyber activity from Iran and China, a potential copper boom in Argentina, and ongoing human rights concerns in Belarus and Chad. In the UK, far-right riots have led to a focus on the role of politicians and social media companies in tackling misinformation and hate speech.

Iran's Cyber Activity and Nuclear Ambitions

Iran has increased its online activity in an attempt to influence the upcoming US election, according to Microsoft. Iranian actors have targeted a presidential campaign with a phishing attack, created fake news sites, and impersonated activists. This comes as Iran retains Mohammad Eslami, who is on a UN blacklist for his alleged role in nuclear proliferation, as head of its atomic agency. Tehran is keen to restart talks with the West to ease sanctions over its nuclear program.

Copper Boom in Argentina

Drilling at the Los Azules mine in Argentina has confirmed a high-grade copper zone. The project is expected to produce an average of 322 million pounds of copper annually over 27 years. This discovery, along with recent legislation incentivizing investment in the mining sector, could lead to a copper boom in Argentina.

Human Rights Concerns in Belarus and Chad

Canada and its allies have imposed sanctions on Belarus and called for the release of nearly 1,400 political prisoners detained since the disputed 2020 election. The situation in Chad is also concerning, with the editor-in-chief of the country's leading online news site abducted by armed men and detained for 24 hours.

UK Far-Right Riots

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has revealed he feels unsafe as a Muslim politician in the UK due to far-right riots. He has called for harsher legislation to tackle misinformation and hate speech on social media, while Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has urged social media companies to do more to tackle extremism.

Recommendations for Businesses and Investors

  • Iran's Cyber Activity and Nuclear Ambitions: Businesses with operations or investments in Iran should closely monitor the situation and be prepared for potential instability, particularly if tensions with the US escalate.
  • Copper Boom in Argentina: The discovery of high-grade copper in Argentina presents opportunities for investors in the mining sector, particularly with the government's incentives for large-scale investments.
  • Human Rights Concerns in Belarus and Chad: Businesses with operations or supply chains in Belarus may face reputational risks due to the country's human rights abuses and support for Russia's war in Ukraine. Investors should also be cautious about investing in Belarus due to the country's unstable political situation and economic sanctions. Businesses and investors in Chad should monitor the situation and be prepared to act if media freedom continues to be threatened.
  • UK Far-Right Riots: Businesses in the UK, particularly those in the social media and tech sectors, should be aware of potential regulatory changes regarding online safety and take proactive steps to tackle misinformation and hate speech on their platforms.

Further Reading:

Canada and allies hit Belarus with new sanctions, urge prisoners’ release - Global News Toronto

Canada imposes sanctions on anniversary of fraudulent 2020 Belarus election - Toronto Star

Chad: Journalist released after 24 hours in custody in N’Djamena / FIP - International Federation of Journalists

Drilling campaign confirms high-grade copper at Loz Azules in Argentina - Mining Technology

EU and US call for the release of Belarus' political prisoners on the anniversary of mass protests - Toronto Star

France urges Kosovo to stop 'actions' irking Serbs - Arab News Pakistan

Iran is accelerating cyber activity that appears meant to influence the US election, Microsoft says - The Associated Press

Iran keeps UN-sanctioned Eslami as head of nuclear agency - DW (English)

Themes around the World:

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Massive Economic Support and Reconstruction

International partners have agreed on a €682 billion, ten-year economic support package for Ukraine, targeting reconstruction, compensation, and reforms for EU accession. This unprecedented aid will drive infrastructure renewal and attract foreign investment, reshaping Ukraine’s postwar economy.

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Long-Term Erosion of Investment Climate

The cumulative effect of sanctions, revenue losses, and regulatory uncertainty is eroding Russia’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment. Persistent instability and heightened compliance risks are prompting international businesses to reassess or exit the Russian market.

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Reshoring And Supply Chain Security

Major US industrial policy now prioritizes reshoring advanced manufacturing, especially in AI and semiconductors. Large-scale investments aim to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities and create middle-class jobs, but higher costs and regulatory hurdles challenge implementation and global competitiveness.

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Infrastructure Development Initiatives

Significant investments in infrastructure, including ports, roads, and industrial zones, are underway to enhance Indonesia's logistics capabilities. Improved infrastructure facilitates smoother trade flows and attracts foreign direct investment, though construction delays and regulatory hurdles remain challenges for timely project completion.

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Trade Protectionism and Textile Tariffs

Indonesia imposed a three-year safeguard tariff on imported woven cotton fabrics to protect its domestic textile industry. This reflects a broader protectionist trend, potentially affecting supply chains, trade negotiations, and the competitiveness of foreign textile exporters.

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Labor Market Dynamics

Vietnam's young and skilled workforce is a significant asset, but rising labor costs and skill shortages in certain sectors pose challenges. Businesses must adapt strategies to balance cost efficiency with talent acquisition and retention.

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US Sanctions and Export Controls Expand

The US continues to use sanctions and export controls as tools of foreign policy, targeting adversaries such as Iran and Russia. The complexity and reach of OFAC measures create significant compliance risks and operational hurdles for international businesses and financial institutions.

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EU Tariffs Reshape Swedish Industry

The introduction of new EU tariffs has driven a 60% surge in SSAB’s stock and increased regionalization in Sweden’s steel sector, strengthening domestic producers but raising costs for importers and supply chain partners across Europe.

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Stock Market Surges on Tech Boom

South Korea’s stock market capitalization soared 76.2% in 2025, driven by Samsung and SK hynix’s gains amid AI chip demand. The KOSPI index rose 75.7%, reflecting investor optimism and amplifying the country’s attractiveness for international capital and portfolio investment.

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Sectoral Overdependence on Semiconductors

Despite headline export growth, non-semiconductor exports declined 1% in 2025. Korea’s heavy reliance on chips masks underlying vulnerabilities in other sectors, underscoring the need for diversification and innovation in manufacturing and services.

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Political Stability and Policy Continuity

Brazil’s trade performance benefited from government efforts to maintain stability and promote international agreements. However, political developments, such as investigations into former leaders and ongoing US negotiations, could affect investor confidence and regulatory predictability.

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Political Uncertainty Drives Globalization

French business leaders are increasingly prioritizing international expansion amid domestic political and economic instability. Rising taxes, regulatory complexity, and geopolitical tensions are pushing companies to diversify markets and investments outside France.

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Industrial Output Faces Prolonged Decline

German industrial production declined 1.2% in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a fourth consecutive annual drop. Key sectors like automotive and machinery remain below pre-pandemic levels, reflecting deep structural challenges and ongoing risks for exporters and global supply chains.

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Energy Sector Expansion and Regional Integration

Major investments in natural gas infrastructure, such as the Leviathan field expansion and long-term export deals with Egypt, position Israel as a key regional energy supplier. These developments support energy security and export revenues but are exposed to regional tensions and shifting global energy markets.

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Fiscal Strain and Wartime Economy

Russia’s GDP growth has slowed to 0.1%, with industrial output declining and inflation rising. The government is raising taxes and pushing for economic formalization to offset war-related spending and sanctions-induced budget gaps, impacting domestic and foreign business operations.

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Danish Defense Policy Hardens

Denmark reaffirmed its Cold War-era policy to defend Greenland militarily against any invasion, including from NATO allies. This stance increases regional tensions and could trigger direct conflict, affecting risk assessments for foreign investment and multinational operations in Denmark.

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Infrastructure Modernization and Urban Growth

Major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are investing in infrastructure, digital transformation, and sustainable urban development. Record FDI inflows and public investment disbursement support mega-projects, but land disputes, regulatory bottlenecks, and the need for fiscal discipline affect project execution and business environment stability.

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Geopolitical Risks and Security Concerns

Heightened geopolitical tensions, including relations with Russia and China, impact UK trade policies and investment climates. Security concerns influence supply chain resilience strategies and necessitate careful risk assessment for businesses engaged in sensitive sectors or reliant on global sourcing.

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State Intervention and Subsidy Expansion

The German government, with EU approval, is expanding subsidies for new gas-fired power plants and industrial electricity costs. While aimed at supporting industry, these interventions raise concerns about long-term competitiveness, fiscal sustainability, and potential market distortions within the EU.

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Supply Chain and Infrastructure Disruptions

Ukrainian drone strikes and sanctions have damaged Russian energy infrastructure, causing production and export delays. Logistical challenges, including longer shipping routes and increased insurance costs, are disrupting supply chains for both Russian and international partners.

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Renewable Energy Expansion and Green Finance

Egypt signed $1.8 billion in renewable energy deals, including Africa’s largest solar project and battery storage facilities. Supported by international banks, these initiatives advance Egypt’s 2030 clean energy targets, offering opportunities for green investment and supply chain localization.

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Labor Market Stress and Job Insecurity

Unemployment has risen to 6.2%, with job insecurity at its highest since 2009. Younger and lower-income workers are most affected, while ongoing layoffs and restructuring in key sectors dampen consumer confidence and complicate talent acquisition for international firms.

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Credit Guarantees and Investment Incentives

Taiwan’s government will provide at least $250 billion in credit guarantees to support outbound investment, facilitating large-scale expansion of Taiwanese firms abroad. This enhances financial flexibility but increases exposure to overseas market and regulatory risks.

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USMCA Trade Dynamics

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) continues to shape Mexico's trade landscape, influencing tariffs, labor standards, and regulatory alignment. This agreement enhances Mexico's export potential but requires compliance with stringent rules, impacting manufacturing and supply chains, especially in automotive and agriculture sectors.

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Regulatory Shifts for Environmental Compliance

New rules require burn-free certification and stricter origin documentation for feed corn and wheat imports, aligning with global sustainability standards. These regulations impact agri-business supply chains and signal Thailand’s commitment to environmental compliance, but increase operational complexity for importers and exporters.

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Sustainable Development And Green Transition

Vietnam’s national plan targets green growth, digital economy, and advanced infrastructure by 2050. Investments in renewable energy, climate-resilient projects, and environmental regulations are rising, with sustainability increasingly central to investment strategy and supply chain decisions.

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Regulatory Overhaul and Business Reforms

India is undergoing significant regulatory changes, including new acquisition financing rules, streamlined business laws, and enhanced ease of doing business. These reforms support structured growth, compliance, and transparency, reducing operational risks for international investors and businesses.

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Defense Modernization and Arms Procurement

Taiwan is strengthening its military with a $40 billion defense budget increase and major US arms packages, including HIMARS and advanced missiles. These moves enhance deterrence but may escalate tensions with China, impacting regional investment and operations.

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Peace Negotiations and Territorial Uncertainty

Intensive peace talks continue, but Russia rejects European peacekeepers and demands territorial concessions. The lack of clarity over Ukraine’s borders and sovereignty creates significant risk for long-term investment, trade, and operational planning.

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Regulatory and Political Uncertainties

Brazil faces ongoing regulatory changes, including tax reforms and sector-specific rules, as well as political uncertainties tied to the 2026 election cycle. These factors can affect the business environment, requiring vigilant monitoring by international investors and operators.

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Geopolitical Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

France and the broader EU face increasing risks from supply chain dependencies, especially for critical minerals, electrical steel, and copper. Geopolitical tensions with China and hardware scarcity challenge the resilience of industrial and energy supply chains, impacting cost structures and strategic planning.

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Sustainability and Energy Transition Policies

India’s SHANTI Act and nuclear energy reforms enable private and foreign participation in clean energy, supporting long-term sustainability goals. Expanded renewable and nuclear capacity, alongside environmental regulations, create new investment opportunities and future-proof supply chains against climate risks.

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Rapid Export Growth And Surplus

Vietnam achieved an 18% year-on-year trade growth in 2025, with exports reaching $475 billion and a trade surplus over $20 billion. This robust export performance, led by processed goods, strengthens macroeconomic stability and investor confidence, supporting supply chain resilience.

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Private Investment Skepticism Toward Megaprojects

Despite government ambitions for nation-building infrastructure, global capital markets remain cautious due to high execution risks, uncertain returns, and climate transition challenges. Investor hesitation threatens the financing and timely delivery of major Canadian projects.

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Downstream Bauxite Industrialization Push

Indonesia is entering a crucial phase of bauxite downstream processing, aiming to strengthen domestic alumina and aluminium industries. This shift reduces raw ore exports, supports supply chain resilience, and positions Indonesia as a key global supplier for multiple sectors.

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Nearshoring Drives Supply Chain Shifts

Mexico’s proximity to the US and resilient manufacturing sector have accelerated nearshoring, attracting investment and supply chain reconfiguration. Export growth to the US reached 9% in 2025, positioning Mexico as a strategic alternative amid global trade disruptions and China tariffs.