Mission Grey Daily Brief - August 11, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The global situation remains dynamic, with escalating cyber activity from Iran and China, a potential copper boom in Argentina, and ongoing human rights concerns in Belarus and Chad. In the UK, far-right riots have led to a focus on the role of politicians and social media companies in tackling misinformation and hate speech.
Iran's Cyber Activity and Nuclear Ambitions
Iran has increased its online activity in an attempt to influence the upcoming US election, according to Microsoft. Iranian actors have targeted a presidential campaign with a phishing attack, created fake news sites, and impersonated activists. This comes as Iran retains Mohammad Eslami, who is on a UN blacklist for his alleged role in nuclear proliferation, as head of its atomic agency. Tehran is keen to restart talks with the West to ease sanctions over its nuclear program.
Copper Boom in Argentina
Drilling at the Los Azules mine in Argentina has confirmed a high-grade copper zone. The project is expected to produce an average of 322 million pounds of copper annually over 27 years. This discovery, along with recent legislation incentivizing investment in the mining sector, could lead to a copper boom in Argentina.
Human Rights Concerns in Belarus and Chad
Canada and its allies have imposed sanctions on Belarus and called for the release of nearly 1,400 political prisoners detained since the disputed 2020 election. The situation in Chad is also concerning, with the editor-in-chief of the country's leading online news site abducted by armed men and detained for 24 hours.
UK Far-Right Riots
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has revealed he feels unsafe as a Muslim politician in the UK due to far-right riots. He has called for harsher legislation to tackle misinformation and hate speech on social media, while Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has urged social media companies to do more to tackle extremism.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
- Iran's Cyber Activity and Nuclear Ambitions: Businesses with operations or investments in Iran should closely monitor the situation and be prepared for potential instability, particularly if tensions with the US escalate.
- Copper Boom in Argentina: The discovery of high-grade copper in Argentina presents opportunities for investors in the mining sector, particularly with the government's incentives for large-scale investments.
- Human Rights Concerns in Belarus and Chad: Businesses with operations or supply chains in Belarus may face reputational risks due to the country's human rights abuses and support for Russia's war in Ukraine. Investors should also be cautious about investing in Belarus due to the country's unstable political situation and economic sanctions. Businesses and investors in Chad should monitor the situation and be prepared to act if media freedom continues to be threatened.
- UK Far-Right Riots: Businesses in the UK, particularly those in the social media and tech sectors, should be aware of potential regulatory changes regarding online safety and take proactive steps to tackle misinformation and hate speech on their platforms.
Further Reading:
Canada and allies hit Belarus with new sanctions, urge prisoners’ release - Global News Toronto
Canada imposes sanctions on anniversary of fraudulent 2020 Belarus election - Toronto Star
Drilling campaign confirms high-grade copper at Loz Azules in Argentina - Mining Technology
France urges Kosovo to stop 'actions' irking Serbs - Arab News Pakistan
Iran keeps UN-sanctioned Eslami as head of nuclear agency - DW (English)
Themes around the World:
Cybersecurity and hybrid interference exposure
Taiwan’s critical infrastructure faces persistent cyber and influence operations alongside military ‘grey-zone’ pressure. Multinationals should anticipate higher compliance expectations, stronger incident-reporting norms, and increased operational spending on redundancy, supplier security, and data integrity.
Shifting Trade Partnerships and Diversification
US unpredictability has prompted partners like India, the EU, and others to seek alternative trade relationships, including new deals with China. This diversification reduces US leverage, alters global trade flows, and impacts long-term market positioning for multinationals.
Energy Transition and LNG Import Surge
Egypt is rapidly expanding renewable energy projects, signing $1.8 billion in deals with Norway and China. However, domestic gas production decline and regional supply disruptions have turned Egypt into a major LNG importer, raising costs and supply chain complexity.
Domestic Growth Relies on Exports
China’s 5% GDP growth in 2025 was mainly export-driven, with weak domestic consumption and investment. Authorities aim to boost domestic demand and technological self-reliance, but future growth remains vulnerable to external trade pressures and global demand shifts.
Disrupted Oil Exports and Geopolitical Risk
Despite sanctions, Iran remains a major oil exporter, primarily to China. However, unrest, U.S. military threats, and new tariffs have increased the risk of supply disruptions, impacting global energy prices and complicating long-term contracts and logistics for energy buyers.
USMCA Uncertainty and Trade Policy
The 2026 USMCA review introduces significant uncertainty for Mexico’s trade and investment climate. Potential renegotiation or non-renewal, new US tariffs, and stricter rules of origin could disrupt supply chains, especially in automotive, manufacturing, and critical minerals, impacting cross-border operations and investment planning.
Critical Minerals Supply Chain Security
France is intensifying international cooperation to diversify and secure critical minerals supply chains for EV batteries, reducing reliance on China. This strategic shift is crucial for trade, investment, and the resilience of EV battery second-life operations.
Quality FDI and semiconductors
Registered FDI reached US$38.42bn in 2025 and realised FDI about US$27.62bn (highest 2021–25). Early-2026 approvals topped US$1bn in Bac Ninh and Thai Nguyen, with policy focus on semiconductors, AI, and higher value-added supply chains.
Foreign investment approvals and regulation drag
Multinational CEOs report slower, costlier approvals and heavier compliance. OECD ranks Australia highly restrictive for foreign investment screening; nearly half of applications exceeded statutory timelines, and fees have risen sharply. Deal certainty, transaction costs and time-to-market are increasingly material planning factors.
EEC land, zoning, logistics bottlenecks
Industrial land scarcity and outdated zoning in the EEC are delaying large projects; clearing public rights-of-way can take 7–8 years. Government efforts to “unlock” constraints and restart U-Tapao Airport City PPP may reshape site selection, capex timing, and logistics planning.
Accelerated EU Accession and Market Integration
Ukraine aims for EU membership by 2027, viewing integration as a key security and economic guarantee. Many EU states support this timeline, but accession depends on reforms and consensus. Rapid integration could reshape trade, regulatory, and investment landscapes for international businesses.
Red Sea security and shipping risk
Renewed Houthi threats and Gulf coalition frictions around Yemen heighten disruption risk for Red Sea transits. Even without direct Saudi impact, rerouting, insurance premiums, and delivery delays can affect import-dependent sectors, project logistics, and regional hub strategies.
Ambitious Infrastructure Investment Drive
Vietnam is launching major infrastructure projects, including high-speed rail and expanded logistics networks, to support growth and regional connectivity. These initiatives are designed to enhance export capacity, attract FDI, and improve the country’s competitiveness in global value chains.
Foreign Direct Investment Remains Robust
Germany continues to attract significant FDI into its modular building sector, with capital flowing into manufacturing, technology, and green construction. Strategic alliances and cross-border partnerships are fostering innovation, market expansion, and supply chain resilience.
Global Supply Chain Diversification Trend
Amid US-led tariff wars, UK businesses are accelerating efforts to diversify suppliers and markets, particularly towards India and Asia-Pacific. This shift aims to mitigate risks from geopolitical shocks and ensure resilience in critical sectors such as automotive and technology.
Regulatory Environment Grows More Complex
The US is implementing significant regulatory changes, including expanded compliance requirements and sector-specific rules. Businesses face increased costs and operational complexity, particularly in finance, technology, and manufacturing, affecting market entry and ongoing operations.
US Section 232 chip tariffs
US semiconductor tariff planning and AI-chip measures create uncertainty on chips and derivative products. Korea may need “investment-for-exemptions” negotiations similar to Taiwan’s offset model, influencing where fabs, packaging, and R&D are located and affecting compliance, pricing, and market access strategies.
Persistent Energy Infrastructure Attacks
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid have caused widespread blackouts and threaten business continuity. Nearly 60% of Kyiv was recently without power, with similar conditions nationwide. Energy insecurity remains a top risk, impacting manufacturing, logistics, and foreign investment confidence.
Trade Diversification Amid US Tariffs
Facing 50% US tariffs, India has accelerated trade agreements with the EU, UK, Oman, and New Zealand. This strategic pivot reduces dependence on the US, hedges against protectionism, and opens new markets for labor-intensive and technology-driven exports.
ESG and Sustainability Standards Tighten
Germany’s modular building sector is increasingly shaped by strict ESG and sustainability requirements, including CSRD implementation. Compliance with green building standards and lifecycle emissions reporting is now essential for market access, financing, and supply chain integration.
De-dollarisation and local-currency settlement
Russian officials report near‑100% national‑currency use in trade with China and India and ~90% within the EAEU, reducing USD/EUR reliance. For foreign firms, FX convertibility, hedging, and repatriation complexity rise, especially where correspondent banking access is constrained.
Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience
Amid US tariffs and rising protectionism, China has diversified export markets and supply chains, boosting trade with ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America. However, supply chain ‘reallocation’ through third countries keeps China central to global manufacturing, complicating true decoupling efforts.
Regulatory Sovereignty and Policy Autonomy Concerns
The imposition of EU-style ESG and regulatory standards through the trade agreement raises concerns about Brazil’s policy autonomy and federal structure. Businesses face higher compliance costs and potential exclusion from markets if unable to meet external certification and traceability requirements.
Energy Dependency and Strategic Vulnerability
Germany’s reliance on imported energy, particularly US LNG after the Russian phase-out, exposes its economy to price shocks and political leverage. This dependency increases operational risks for manufacturers and raises costs, impacting competitiveness and long-term investment planning.
EU-India FTA Reshapes Trade Landscape
The EU-India Free Trade Agreement, praised as historic, eliminates tariffs on nearly all goods and is expected to double Finland–India trade to €6 billion by 2032. This deal will significantly boost Finnish exports, diversify supply chains, and deepen political ties, providing new opportunities in technology, manufacturing, and services.
Tariff Policy Uncertainty and Inflation
Recent tariff hikes—averaging 18% and affecting a broad range of imports—have raised inflation by 1.3% and cost US households up to $2,100 annually. Legal challenges and pending Supreme Court decisions add uncertainty, complicating business planning and investment strategies.
Manufacturing Competitiveness and PLI Schemes
Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes have attracted $22.2 billion in investments across 14 sectors, generating $207.9 billion in new production and 1.26 million jobs. These policies are boosting electronics, pharmaceuticals, and specialty chemicals, enhancing India’s role in global value chains.
Political Volatility and Diplomatic Strategy
President Sheinbaum’s approach to US relations emphasizes dialogue, sovereignty, and adaptability in the face of unpredictable US policy shifts. Ongoing communication with President Trump and Canadian leaders is crucial for maintaining trade stability and managing bilateral crises.
FX reserves and rupee stability
External buffers improved, with liquid reserves around $21.3bn and SBP reserves near $16.1bn after IMF inflows. Nevertheless, debt repayments and current-account pressures can quickly tighten import financing, raise hedging costs, and disrupt supplier payments and inventory planning.
Energy Transition: Nuclear and Renewables
South Korea is advancing its energy transition by planning two new nuclear reactors by 2038 and emphasizing renewables to meet carbon neutrality goals. This shift will influence industrial energy costs, supply chain sustainability, and investment in green technology sectors.
Border trade decentralization, barter
Tehran is delegating emergency import powers to border provinces, enabling direct imports, simplified customs, and barter to secure essentials under sanctions and conflict risk. This creates localized regulatory variance, higher compliance ambiguity, and opportunities for regional traders with elevated corruption risk.
Legal Uncertainty and Corruption Risks
Persistent legal unpredictability, high-profile corruption scandals, and slow reforms deter foreign direct investment. Recent parliamentary bribery cases and anti-corruption investigations highlight systemic governance challenges, which international investors view as a greater risk than the ongoing war itself.
Deforestation and Environmental Risk
Deforestation in the Cerrado and Amazon remains a major concern, with over 8.5 million hectares lost in five years. New EU regulations targeting deforestation-linked commodities threaten Brazilian exports, while domestic policies and enforcement are intensifying to meet climate commitments.
US-Israel Strategic Partnership and Aid
The US continues to provide substantial military and economic aid to Israel, reinforcing bilateral ties and defense cooperation. This partnership underpins Israel’s security posture but also shapes the regulatory and sanctions environment, influencing international investment and technology transfer.
Regional Security Tensions and Military Threats
U.S. threats of military intervention, ongoing proxy conflicts, and the weakening of Iran’s regional alliances have heightened security risks. The potential for escalation jeopardizes cross-border trade, energy transit, and the safety of international personnel and assets.
Privatization and Infrastructure Modernization
The government is advancing privatization of key assets, including airports and state enterprises, through transparent, open bidding. These efforts aim to improve operational efficiency, attract foreign investment, and modernize infrastructure, with significant interest from Gulf and Turkish investors.