US trade deal and tariffs

Vietnam is negotiating a “reciprocal” trade agreement with the US as its 2025 surplus hit about US$133.8bn, raising tariff and transshipment scrutiny. Outcomes will shape market access, rules of origin compliance, and investor decisions on Vietnam-based export platforms.

Immobilien-, Bau- und Projektpipeline-Risiko

Hohe Finanzierungskosten bremsen Bau und Real Estate: Hypothekenzinsen lagen Ende 2025 bei ca. 3,9% (10 Jahre), Neubaufinanzierungen schwächer. Der Bau-PMI fiel Januar 2026 auf 44,7. Auswirkungen: Standortverfügbarkeit, Werks-/Logistikflächenpreise, Lieferantenaufträge und Investitions-Timings.

Sanctions enforcement hits shipping

The UK is tightening Russia-related controls, including planned maritime services restrictions affecting Russian LNG and stronger action against shadow-fleet tankers. Heightened interdiction and compliance scrutiny increase legal, insurance, and chartering risk for shipping, traders, and financiers touching high-risk cargoes.

Defense-driven simulation procurement

Finland’s heightened security posture is accelerating procurement of training, mission rehearsal and synthetic environments across NATO-compatible standards. This expands demand for simulators, XR devices and secure networks, creating export opportunities but raising compliance, security-clearance and supply-chain assurance requirements.

Reopening travel, visa facilitation

Large rises in cross-border trips and wider visa-free/extended transit policies (including UK visa-free plans) improve commercial mobility and service trade. However, implementation details and reciprocity remain variable, requiring firms to plan for compliance, documentation, and policy reversals.

US–Taiwan tariff deal reshapes trade

A pending reciprocal tariff arrangement would reduce US tariffs on many Taiwanese goods (reported 20% to 15%) and grant semiconductors MFN treatment under Section 232. In exchange, large Taiwan investment pledges could shift sourcing and pricing dynamics for exporters.

Semiconductor geopolitics and reshoring

TSMC’s expanded US investment deepens supply-chain bifurcation as Washington tightens technology controls and seeks onshore capacity. Companies must manage dual compliance regimes, IP protection, export licensing, and supplier localization decisions across US, Taiwan, and China markets.

China-Brazil Strategic Alignment

China is deepening its strategic partnership with Brazil, especially in agriculture and infrastructure, amid shifting global power dynamics. Increased Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans and infrastructure investments strengthen bilateral economic ties and supply chain resilience.

Aranceles y reconfiguración automotriz

Aranceles de EE. UU. y peticiones de México para reducir tasas a autos no conformes con T‑MEC presionan exportaciones. Cierres/ajustes de plantas y potencial compra por BYD/Geely muestran reconfiguración; sube el escrutinio sobre “backdoor” chino y el riesgo de medidas.

Digital infrastructure and data centers

A proposed 20-year tax holiday plus GST/input relief aims to attract foreign data-center and cloud investment, targeting fivefold capacity growth to 8GW by 2030. Multinationals face opportunities in AI/5G ecosystems alongside evolving localization, energy and permitting constraints.

Critical minerals investment acceleration

Canberra is fast-tracking critical minerals mining and midstream processing to diversify non-China supply chains. The new prospectus highlights 49 mines and 29 processing projects, backed by a A$1.2bn strategic reserve and a A$4bn facility, reshaping sourcing and JV decisions.

Record EBRD and Foreign Investment Inflows

The EBRD invested a record €2.7 billion in Turkey in 2025, with 91% in the private sector. Major projects include infrastructure and post-earthquake reconstruction, underlining Turkey’s long-term investment appeal and resilience.

Trade Policy Shifts and Bilateral Agreements

A forthcoming US-Indonesia trade agreement could quadruple bilateral trade, offering tariff exemptions for Indonesian commodities and US access to critical minerals. However, the deal’s structure and alignment with industrial policy will determine whether Indonesia can achieve balanced, sustainable trade growth.

Energy policy boosts LNG exports

A shift toward faster permitting and “regular order” approvals for LNG terminals and non-FTA exports signals higher medium-term US gas supply to Europe and Asia. This supports long-term contracting but can raise domestic price volatility and regulatory swings for energy-intensive industries.

Energy Transition And Renewables Expansion

Khanh Hoa and other provinces are advancing large-scale renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and nuclear. National policies support the shift to green energy, grid stability, and green hydrogen, enhancing Vietnam’s energy security and export potential in the clean tech sector.

Expanded secondary sanctions via tariffs

Washington is blending sanctions and trade tools, including a proposed blanket 25% tariff on imports from any country trading with Iran. This “long-arm” approach raises compliance costs, forces enhanced supply-chain due diligence, and increases retaliation and WTO-dispute risk for multinationals.

UK–EU border frictions endure

Post‑Brexit customs and SPS requirements, the Border Target Operating Model, and Northern Ireland arrangements continue to reshape UK–EU flows. Firms face documentation risk, delays, and higher logistics overheads, driving route diversification, inventory buffers, and reconfiguration of distribution hubs serving EU markets.

Carbon border and ETS policy shifts

Changes to UK carbon pricing and the forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism raise exposure for heavy industry, particularly steel, with some estimates of carbon costs rising toward £250m by 2031 and higher later. Import competitiveness, pricing, and procurement strategies will shift.

Energy security under blockade scenarios

Taiwan’s import dependence, especially for LNG, creates acute vulnerability to maritime interference. Policy efforts to prioritize energy security underline risks of power shortages and industrial curtailment, affecting fabs, chemicals, and data centers with high uptime requirements.

Fiscal slippage raises funding costs

Breaches of the 2025 spending cap and widening deficits are pushing gross debt higher (about 78.7% of GDP) and inflating “restos a pagar” (R$391.5bn). Markets may demand higher risk premia, increasing hedging, financing and project-delivery risk.

US-India trade deal recalibration

A framework for a reciprocal interim US–India agreement signals selective tariff relief tied to market-access concessions and rules-of-origin tightening. Companies should expect changing duty rates across textiles, chemicals, machinery and pharma inputs, plus increased focus on standards, NTBs, and supply-chain resilience clauses.

Carbon Market Regulation and Opportunities

Brazil is preparing to launch a regulated carbon credit market by 2030, unlocking significant investment in forest conservation, renewable energy, and agriculture. This regulatory shift will drive demand for carbon credits, impacting polluting industries and boosting international climate finance flows.

Regional Security Tensions and Military Posturing

US military deployments, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s support for regional proxies elevate the risk of conflict. Any escalation could disrupt global energy flows and insurance costs, directly impacting supply chains and investment risk assessments.

Energy Policy and Power Grid Strain

Explosive AI-driven demand is straining the US power grid, prompting urgent investment in nuclear and grid infrastructure. Regulatory reforms and public-private partnerships are accelerating, but energy reliability and cost volatility will remain key concerns for industrial and tech sectors.

FCA crypto regime tightening

FCA’s CP26/4 and Consumer Duty guidance pull crypto trading, custody and safeguarding into mainstream conduct standards, with an authorisation gateway due Sept 2026–Feb 2027 and full regime expected Oct 2027—reshaping UK market entry and product design.

FX stability, reserves, lira risk

Central bank reserves hit a record $218.2bn, supporting near-term currency stability and reducing tail-risk for importers. Yet expectations still point to weak lira levels (around 51–52 USD/TRY over 12 months), complicating hedging, repatriation, and contract indexation.

BoJ tightening, yen volatility

The Bank of Japan’s post-deflation normalisation (policy rate at 0.75% after December hike) keeps FX and JGB yields volatile, raising hedging costs and repricing M&A and project finance. Authorities also signal readiness to curb disorderly yen moves.

US tariff shock and AGOA risk

US imposed 30% tariffs on South African exports in 2025, undermining AGOA preferences and creating uncertainty for autos, metals, and agriculture. Exporters face margin compression, potential job losses, and incentives to re-route supply chains or shift production footprints regionally.

USMCA review and tariff risk

The July 2026 USMCA joint review is opening talks on stricter rules of origin, critical-minerals coordination, labor enforcement and anti-dumping. Fitch warns “zombie-mode” annual renewals. Uncertainty raises compliance costs and chills long-horizon manufacturing investment.

Secondary Sanctions via Tariffs

Washington is expanding coercive tools beyond classic sanctions, including threats of blanket tariffs on countries trading with Iran. For multinationals, this elevates third-country exposure, drives deeper counterparty screening, and can force rapid rerouting of trade, logistics, and energy procurement.

Allied Coordination on Resource Security

Australia is collaborating with the US, UK, EU, and regional partners to establish price floors and secure supply chains for critical minerals. This coordinated approach aims to counter China’s market dominance, catalyze investment, and ensure stable access for clean energy and defense industries.

US-France Trade Tensions Escalate

Rising US tariffs on French wine and digital services, coupled with threats of broader sanctions, create uncertainty for exporters and investors. These tensions, intensified by political disputes, risk disrupting transatlantic trade and investment flows.

China decoupling in high-tech

Stricter export controls, higher chip tariffs and conditional exemptions tied to U.S. fab capacity reshape electronics, AI infrastructure and China exposure. Firms face redesign of product flows, licensing risk, higher component costs, and pressure to localize critical semiconductor supply chains.

EU Energy Decoupling and Bans

The EU has legislated a full ban on Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports by 2027, with plans to phase out Russian oil as well. This structural decoupling will reshape European energy markets, accelerate diversification, and impact global energy flows, with significant implications for Russian revenues and EU supply chains.

US trade access and AGOA uncertainty

AGOA has been extended only short-term amid strained US–South Africa relations and eligibility scrutiny. Exporters in autos, agriculture and apparel face tariff cliff risk, contract repricing and investment hesitation, while firms may need contingency routing, rules-of-origin checks and market diversification.

Defense Sector Expansion and Privatization

Israel’s defense industry is expanding internationally, with IPOs of key firms like IAI and increased exports to Europe amid heightened demand. Privatization and global partnerships enhance competitiveness, but regulatory and labor hurdles, as well as security considerations, shape the sector’s trajectory.