Agua y clima: riesgo transfronterizo

México se comprometió a entregar al menos 350,000 acre‑pies anuales a EE. UU. bajo el Tratado de 1944 y a pagar adeudos previos, tras amenazas arancelarias. Sequías y asignaciones industriales pueden generar paros, conflictos sociales y exposición comercial en agroindustria.

Semiconductor and electronics scale-up

Budget 2026 doubles electronics component incentives to ₹40,000 crore and advances ISM 2.0 to deepen design, equipment, and materials capacity. This accelerates supplier localization and India-plus-one strategies, while raising competition for talent and requiring careful IP, export-control, and vendor qualification planning.

India trade deals intensify competition

India’s new EU deal and evolving US tariff arrangements reduce Pakistan’s historical preference cushion, especially in textiles and made-ups. European and US buyers may renegotiate prices and lead times, pressuring margins and accelerating shifts toward higher value-add, reliability, and compliance performance.

Selic alta e volatilidade

Com Selic em 15% e inflação de 12 meses em 4,44% (perto do teto de 4,5%), o BC sinaliza cortes graduais a partir de março, sem guidance longo. A combinação de juros e incerteza fiscal afeta crédito, câmbio, hedges e decisões de capex.

Mining regulation and exploration bottlenecks

Mining investment is constrained by slow permitting and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration spend fell to about R781 million in 2024 from R6.2 billion in 2006, and permitting delays reportedly run 18–24 months. This deters greenfield projects, affects critical-mineral supply pipelines.

Energy exports and infrastructure constraints

Canada remains a major energy supplier, yet pipeline, LNG, and power-transmission buildout is politically and regulatory complex. This affects long-term contracts and project timelines. Buyers and investors should diversify routes, build flexibility into contracts, and model permitting delays.

Contratos mixtos y apertura acotada

El gobierno impulsa “contratos mixtos” con participación estatal mínima de 40% para atraer capital, ejemplificado por Macavil. Esto abre oportunidades selectivas en E&P y servicios, pero con riesgos de gobernanza, términos fiscales, ejecución y dependencia de decisiones políticas.

Verteidigungsboom und Beschaffung

Deutschlands Aufrüstung beschleunigt Investitionen: über 108 Mrd. € stehen für Modernisierung bereit; zusätzlich 536 Mio. € für loitering munitions, Rahmen bis 4,3 Mrd. €. Chancen entstehen für Zulieferer, Dual-Use-Technologien und IT, aber Exportkontrollen, Compliance und Kapazitätsengpässe nehmen zu.

Stratégie énergétique PPE3

La PPE3 fixe une trajectoire 2025-2035: relance nucléaire (six EPR2, huit en option) et objectifs revus pour solaire/éolien, sur fond de demande électrique atone. Impacts: prix de l’électricité, contrats long terme, investissements industriels et disponibilité réseau.

Critical minerals bloc reshaping rules

The U.S. is pushing a preferential critical-minerals trade zone with price floors, reference pricing, and stockpiling (Project Vault), amid China’s dominant refining share. Canada is engaged but not always aligned, affecting mining investment, offtake deals, and EV/defence supply chains.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

New executive authority threatens ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, alongside expanded “shadow fleet” designations. This blurs sanctions and trade policy, raising counterparty screening demands, shipping/insurance costs, and retaliation risk for firms operating across US-linked markets.

Sanctions compliance and rerouting risks

Ongoing Russia-related sanctions and rising evidence of gray-market rerouting via third countries increase exposure for Japanese brands and distributors. Companies should tighten end-use checks, dealer controls, and trade-finance screening to avoid enforcement, reputational harm, and shipment seizures.

Tighter inbound investment screening

CFIUS scrutiny is broadening beyond defense into data-rich and “infrastructure-like” assets, raising execution risk for cross-border M&A and minority stakes. Investors should expect longer timelines, mitigation demands, and valuation discounts for sensitive data, education, and tech targets.

US–Indonesia reciprocal tariff deal

Jakarta and Washington say negotiations on a reciprocal tariff agreement are complete and await presidential signing. Reports indicate US duties on Indonesian exports fall from 32% to 19%, while Indonesia removes tariffs on most US goods and may accept clauses affecting digital trade and sanctions alignment.

Taiwan tensions and operational contingency

Taiwan remains a core flashpoint in U.S.–China relations, elevating tail risks for shipping, semiconductors and insurance. Recent leader-level discussions paired trade asks with warnings on arms sales. Companies should stress‑test logistics, inventory buffers, and contractual force‑majeure exposure for escalation scenarios.

China-exposure and strategic asset scrutiny

Beijing warned of potential retaliation over proposals to return Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, highlighting renewed geopolitics around strategic infrastructure. Firms with China-linked ownership, customers or supply chains face higher political, reputational and contract risks, alongside tighter investment screening.

External debt rollovers, FX buffers

Pakistan’s reliance on short-term bilateral rollovers and Chinese commercial loans keeps reserves fragile; a recent $700m repayment cut gross reserves to about $15.5bn. Tight buffers raise devaluation risk, restrict profit repatriation and disrupt import-dependent supply chains.

Monetary policy and dollar volatility

Cooling inflation (CPI 2.4% y/y in January; core 2.5%) is shifting expectations toward midyear Fed cuts. Rate and FX swings affect working capital, hedging, and investment hurdle rates, while tariff-driven relative price changes alter import demand and margins.

Governance, enforcement, and asset risk

Heightened enforcement actions—permit revocations, land seizures, and talk of asset confiscation powers—are raising perceived rule-of-law risk, especially in resources. High-profile mine ownership uncertainty amplifies legal and political risk premiums, affecting M&A, project finance, and long-term operating stability.

Reforma tributária em transição

A migração para CBS/IBS e Imposto Seletivo começa em 2026 e vai até 2033, com mudanças de crédito e cobrança no destino. Empresas precisam adaptar ERP, precificação e contratos; risco de litígios e custos temporários de compliance aumenta.

Tariff volatility as negotiation tool

The administration is using tariff threats—up to 100% on Canadian goods and shifting rates for key partners—as leverage in broader negotiations. This raises landed-cost uncertainty, complicates pricing and contracting, and incentivizes nearshoring, dual sourcing, and inventory buffers for import-dependent firms.

Expanding U.S. secondary penalties

Washington is tightening enforcement on Iranian trade through new sanctions targeting oil/petrochemical networks and a 25% tariff threat on countries trading with Iran. This elevates compliance costs, raises counterparty risk, and may force rapid supplier requalification.

Inflación persistente y tasas

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% tras 12 bajas, elevando pronósticos de inflación y retrasando convergencia al 3% hasta 2T‑2027. Enero marcó 3,79% anual y subyacente 4,52%, afectando costos laborales, demanda y financiamiento corporativo.

Aid conditionality and fiscal dependence

Ukraine’s budget is heavily war-driven (KSE: 2025 spending US$131.4bn; 71% defence/security; US$39.2bn deficit) and relies on partner financing. EU approved a €90bn loan for 2026–27 and an IMF $8.1bn program is pending, but disbursements hinge on reforms and compliance.

Critical minerals alliance, China risk

Japan is aligning with the US and EU on a critical minerals framework to diversify mining, refining, recycling and stockpiling, responding to China’s export controls on rare earths. Expect tighter compliance expectations, higher input costs, and new investment incentives in non-China supply.

Monetary easing and credit conditions

The central bank cut rates by 100 bps (deposit 19%, lending 20%) and lowered reserve requirements to 16%, aiming to support growth as inflation moderates. Funding costs may ease, yet FX sensitivity and administered-price reforms can still affect financing and demand forecasts.

Labor shortages and immigration bureaucracy

Germany needs about 300,000 skilled workers annually to maintain capacity, but slow, fragmented visa and qualification recognition processes delay hires by months. Tight labor markets raise operating costs and constrain scaling; multinationals should expand nearshoring, automation and structured talent pipelines.

China de-risking and coercion exposure

Sino-Japanese tensions tied to Taiwan rhetoric have brought slower customs clearance, tighter controls and rare-earth licensing uncertainty. Firms face compliance and continuity risks in China-linked supply chains, accelerating diversification, inventory buffering and regional relocation decisions.

Energy roadmap: nuclear-led electrification

The long-delayed PPE energy plan will be issued by decree, aiming to lift electricity to 60% of energy use by 2030. It backs six new EPR reactors (eight optional) plus renewables, shaping power prices, grid investment, and industrial site decisions.

إعادة تشكيل الحكومة وملفات الاستثمار

تعديل وزاري ركّز على الحقائب الاقتصادية واستحداث/فصل وزارات الاستثمار والتجارة الخارجية والتخطيط والصناعة. التغييرات قد تُسرّع تراخيص المشاريع وتحسين بيئة الأعمال، لكنها تخلق فترة انتقالية في السياسات والتنفيذ، ما يستدعي متابعة قرارات الرسوم، التراخيص، والحوافز القطاعية.

Water scarcity and treaty pressures

Historic drought and Mexico–U.S. water treaty obligations are becoming operational risks, particularly for water-intensive industries in northern hubs. Potential rationing, higher tariffs, and community pushback can disrupt production, requiring water audits, recycling investment, and site selection adjustments.

US/EU trade policy pressure

Vietnam’s export engine faces heightened trade-policy risk, notably US tariff negotiations and stricter enforcement actions, plus EU standards. Record US surplus (~US$133.8bn in 2025) increases scrutiny of transshipment and origin compliance, raising duty, audit and rerouting risks.

Geopolitics-linked trade enforcement expands

US trade tools are increasingly tied to security and foreign-policy objectives, from fentanyl and migration narratives to scrutiny of Russian oil-linked trade. Expect more investigations, sanctions-tariff interplay, and compliance checks that can alter supplier eligibility, financing, and shipping routes.

Balochistan security threatens corridors

Militant attacks on freight trains, highways and CPEC-linked areas in Balochistan elevate security costs, insurance premiums and transit uncertainty for Gwadar/Karachi supply routes. Heightened risk to personnel and assets complicates project execution, especially mining and infrastructure investments.

China duty-free access pivot

South Africa and China signed a framework toward duty-free access for selected goods via an “Early Harvest” deal by end-March 2026, amid US tariff pressure. Opportunity expands market access and investment, but raises competitive pressure from imports and dependency risks.

Aviation and airspace disruption

Airlines have suspended or limited services to Tel Aviv and avoided Israeli and nearby airspace during spikes in regional tension. This constrains executive travel and air cargo capacity, pushes shipments to sea/third-country hubs, and complicates time-sensitive logistics.